Scott, hope I don't get the Fuj email treatment and this gets posted.
Was reading Keller and he makes a very interesting suggestion on Rocks drawing power and last years mega WM buyrate that I want the dooms opinion on.
While the Rock gets most of the credit for 28s record buys, Kellers theory is that in in actuality not having a UFC PPV within like 2 months of mania was what made the difference between a decent buyrate and the record breaker we got, NOT the Rock. The idea obviously is that the companies share a fair amount of fans and most of those fans have to choose between WWE and UFC most months since we're not dropping a 120+ a month just on PPVs. Since UFC was nowhere in site last year during mania all those fans just gave Vince their money.
I originally scoffed at the idea since I didnt think they competed that much in PPV and since we're programmed to think of Rock as the biggest draw left in wrestling, but all of Rocks other headlining PPVs since his return have been disappointing (atrocious Survivor Series, disappointing Royal Rumble, and assumed disappointing EC.), so this theory tends to hold water in that regard.
Thought??? Thanks!
PS...have u looked at the trend in UFCs buyrates last few years? There's a big drop that coincides at the time Brock was leaving. Not the biggest UFC fan so don't know if there's more to it.
While the Rock gets most of the credit for 28s record buys, Kellers theory is that in in actuality not having a UFC PPV within like 2 months of mania was what made the difference between a decent buyrate and the record breaker we got, NOT the Rock. The idea obviously is that the companies share a fair amount of fans and most of those fans have to choose between WWE and UFC most months since we're not dropping a 120+ a month just on PPVs. Since UFC was nowhere in site last year during mania all those fans just gave Vince their money.
I originally scoffed at the idea since I didnt think they competed that much in PPV and since we're programmed to think of Rock as the biggest draw left in wrestling, but all of Rocks other headlining PPVs since his return have been disappointing (atrocious Survivor Series, disappointing Royal Rumble, and assumed disappointing EC.), so this theory tends to hold water in that regard.
Thought??? Thanks!
PS...have u looked at the trend in UFCs buyrates last few years? There's a big drop that coincides at the time Brock was leaving. Not the biggest UFC fan so don't know if there's more to it.
I don't think it's exactly a newsflash that UFC cuts into WWE buyrates. In fact most of the failure of WM27 was attributed to the GSP-Hardy show the night before. Really, Vince is the only person left who HASN'T made that connection and who won't admit that UFC is competition.
And Royal Rumble wasn't disappointing, it was just not as profitable as it should have been. Big difference.
That's a really interesting question. That theory will definitely be tested this year, with GSP fighting last week and Bones fighting a couple of weeks after Mania. That's two of the top five golden-egg laying geese for the UFC right there.
ReplyDeleteJust mention Fuj in the email gets you posted these days.
ReplyDeleteIt only doesn't work when you are The Fuj.
Like I said, Only draw left.
Where's BoD ROUND-UP?
Where's RGMoTD?
Where's ROH?
Kidding... no one cares about ROH.
Where's that doofus and his cracked/maddox rip-offs?
Re: Lesnar/Buyrate drop off
I only watched UFC for Brock Lesnar. The rest of the guys I couldn't pick out of a crime line-up. I have no clue who is Anderson or Tim Silva or Jon Jones.
I know of GSP, but I couldnt tell you what he looks like, or what his real name is.
Pure casual UFC fan who came in with Brock and left with Brock.
Um... if I was running a business, and something wasn't as profitable as it should have been, I would consider that "disappointing."
ReplyDeleteBrock was definitely a huge draw and was the reason I started watching UFC. I don't follow it nearly as much as I used to, but a lot of that has to do with overexposure. They have so many pay-per-views now, not including UFC on FOX which are basically free TV PPV's, it winds up forcing a lot of the cards to be weaker than they used to be back when they limited things to one PPV or less per month.
ReplyDeleteburying The Fuj = buys (email answered)
ReplyDeleteIt's ironic that Brock was a big deal in UFC because of WWE, but he's not a huge deal as far as WWE PPVs go.
ReplyDeleteI was gonna say "I'll post your emails, I like your style", but you had to shit on ROH...
ReplyDeleteI don't see how you could call making $1.25 million or so more than what they did last year a disappointment, but I see where your coming from.
ReplyDeleteThis Fuj fella gets it, I'll give that an upvote.....
ReplyDeleteYeah, I don't know who he is and haven't seen him before, but I like the cut of his jib.
ReplyDeletejust say you don't like the direction of ROH right now, and leave it at that.
ReplyDeleteI'll say, who the fuck are those jobbers?
Burying the fuj = putting over the fuj.
ReplyDeleteYou don't get it. ARK-MAY.
If UFC was running Jones vs Silva on April 7th,how low would WM's buyrate be? And Vince knows UFC is his competition, he just won't dare admit it publicly.
ReplyDeleteAt least your reading my reviews...
ReplyDeleteI'm dying laughing at this post.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe that UFC isn't doing a PPV that night from the Barclay's Center, or even that shithole the Islanders play in.
ReplyDeleteCan't run MMA events in New York yet.
ReplyDeleteBrock was the reason I got into UFC but I stuck with it after he retired because they made me care about some of the other fighters. Amazing how that works out.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah... Fuck, I feel stupid now, I live in New York and I should have thought of that. Well, then the arena that the Devils play in then, or wherever the UConn basketball team plays, I'm sure that's big enough.
ReplyDeleteAlways read them, just to keep abreast. or two...
ReplyDeleteThey are just littered with NON-STARS. Nobody that can breakout from the pack of mediocrity.
This guy gets it.
ReplyDeletegood for you.
ReplyDeleteI didn't want to care about anybody but the WWF star beating up the "real" fighters.
I just didnt think he was gonna flame out that quick.
If you make more than you did the year before, that's not disapponting.
ReplyDeleteJust pointing out a lesson WWE should bother to learn.
ReplyDeleteThey have the formula for success.
ReplyDeleteThey are gonna keep makin money. Who cares about creative stagnation? /sarcasm
I know that if they EVER launch the WWE Network it'll be X+1 suckers paying for it, cuz I'm on board for a year MINIMUM.
And it sucks, cuz I know it's probably gonna blow for a while. But I'll throw good money after bad on the propensity of what I envision that channel could be. Or I will fucking put an application in to run that bitch.
That's how strongly i feel about the network.
And Cena/Taker @WM30
I still maintain that Adam Cole will be straight money, and ACH should at least be a decent midcard draw in a couple years. The rest of the roster? Yeah, forget it. Who cares if their not stars though, at least ROH isn't asking $60 for a show that you could have called the winners of the top 3 matches 6 months ago.
ReplyDeleteStars draw money.
ReplyDeleteHave you noticed since Joe/Punk/Bryan...Aries left they have failed to find a marketable draw?
Tyler Black was there but he was like 23 years old, I understand when the fed calls for you, you go, but he had a huge upside to him... and look at them now.
Fat boy as champ. Using plants for heat. Matt Hardy period. This shit is laughable.
Tadarius whats his name... Just reeks of jaybrones.
Why should we care who draws money? I've never understood that mentality, unless you own stock in WWE or something. I don't give a fuck if the guys in ROH are marketable draws, I watch it because their show doesn't have 30 minutes of recaps, or fucking all around completely AWFUL political angles, or people that waste 10 minutes because the ring announcer can't pronounce his name, or constant Twatter pimping, or Miz TV, or the Miz in general, or all the good talents constantly jobbing, or... I think you get my point.
ReplyDeleteI dont care for a specific "who" but SOMEBODY draw some REAL money.
ReplyDeleteBecause if somebody doesnt draw money, then you're beloved bushel of bumbling... wait, damn I had something there /duchess
Seriously, if somebody doesnt draw a significant amount of money, then ROH will go out of business. You won't get to see Fat Boy punch plants. Or Matt Hardy continue to be Matt Hardy in 2013.
You are talking about Adam Cole being straight money, and ACH being a mid card draw. I heard that Karl Anderson is coming to ROH soon (ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ)
Wrestling is part matches (which you/I love) and part gaga (which everyone else loves.) Its a perfect storm that when done right, produces good shows. Matches and gaga.. dog and pony show whatever have you.
Its a niche market and it can only go for so long. You should know that much. How ROH is surviving now, I have no clue. But its been terrible for a while and thats because Im sure the fans cant latch onto a wrestler that has more than in-ring prowess.
He needs to be cruzimatic.
Hell, even the match quality hasn't been much recently.
ReplyDeleteSteen's lack of cardio is embarrassing. He hit...maybe ten moves in his match with Lethal. And half of them were finishers...
Crossover fans from WWE to UFC. Not the other way around, y'dig?
ReplyDeleteSo did I for the most part.
ReplyDeleteI have a friend who follows UFC the way some of us follow wrestling here, and he told me that there was something called "The Brock bump" for UFC ppv buyrates. Apparently, not only did the Brock shows do better business than the others, but the show or two immediately following a Brock show also (consistently) did much better buyrates than what would have been expected (at least at first).
Brock was such a lightning rod for the UFC, that his mere presence increased interest in the overall product. When he left, he left UFC without a face for the company. They still haven't found one half as marketable as Brock.
So, to the UFC, Brock was Hogan. Now UFC needs an Austin to come along and shake things up.
Only having him wrestle at 2 shows, one of which a loss, doesn't help matters. My opinion is that his dates should have been used for pay per view matches not lame interview segments on Raw.I'm firmly am of the opinion that Brock and Rock should be at least having a warm up match against whoever before Mania. Hard to get interested in guys who haven't proven much in the ring lately.
ReplyDeleteThere are also like 40 promotions on TV at any given time of the day.
ReplyDeleteYeah I... get it. BUT THE IRONY
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine what Vince was thinking when he had Cena go over Brock. Cena vs. Brock II at WM29 would be a giant deal if Cena had to avenge a brutal loss.
ReplyDeletewhy should they? especially when it's not any random WWE ppv but WrestleMania, there might be some fans who would decide to stick with wrestling for that night.
ReplyDeleteWho's to say how profitable it "should" have been? Expectations aren't always realistic.
ReplyDeleteNot against a super fight like Jones-Silva.
ReplyDeleteGSP drew 800K just a few weeks ago. Let's not pretend that UFC doesn't have any draws outside of Brock.
ReplyDeleteLet it play out and see where i goes!
ReplyDeleteThey should have brought in a Lesnar look-a-like under a mask to advance angles without using up dates. Make it similar to the Hogan/Mr. America deal except for Lesnar a heel and not actually being there.
ReplyDeleteYou don't understand a thing about financial forecasting, do you?
ReplyDeleteLast year, Vince sat in a stock holders conference call meeting and adamantly stated that they would not have another disappointing year and "wait and see" this time, next year. The WWE made a profit last year. See the difference?
Public companies tend to be much more realistic in their budgeting and forecasting especially after the facebook fiasco. Stockholders don't tend to have much confidence in a company who never exceeds expectations.
ReplyDeleteKINDA CONFUSED BUT DIDN'T WM 27 DO EXCELLENT NUMBERS?
ReplyDeleteI may be coming at this from a different perspective, but the UFC is what I liked about wrestling in a more pure form. My favorite guys were Benoit, Angle, Michaels, Hart, etc. The guys who could chain wrestle and put on an athletic spectacle. For me, the skits, promos, etc. were just time fillers. And frankly, no matter how cool wrestling became publicly, there was always skits or promos that would make me embarrassed to be watching. I would get so close to just swearing off wrestling, then I'd see just enough awesomeness to bring me back in. It's just a bad sign when coming here and reading about wrestling is more enjoyable than watching it.
ReplyDeleteMMA has all the athleticism, strategy, and violence that I need with far less manufactured drama, bad comedy, and nonsense.
Granted, it was an easier transition for me. I train at a traditional martial arts school where the head teacher has always placed importance on knowing at least a little bit about everything; when I started watching MMA with these guys around 2002, I had people in the room who could explain what was happening on the ground.
I thought so, too. I thought it did like a million buys when it had absolutely no right to do those numbers. The Rock being a host generated a lot of intrigue from the casual fans.
ReplyDeleteIT SURE DID. CHECK IT OUT:
ReplyDeleteThe Wrestling Observer is reporting that while original figures places WrestleMania 27 at 1,059,000 buys, the actual number is looking closer to 1,120,000 buys, with 663,000 of them being domestic buys.
With this news information, WrestleMania 27 becomes the second most purchased WWE PPV event, behind the 2007 WrestleMania 23 event which took in 1,250,000 buys.
SEEMS LIKE ANOTHER SCOTT KEITH LIE TO ME
I am a casual MMA fan. But I paid for UFC 100 to watch Brock and then paid for his next defense. Only 2 UFC shows I ever paid for. For what that is worth.
ReplyDeleteI think Scott must have meant Mania 26—— that year (Cena/Batista, HBK/Taker 2, Bret Hart) did a really bad number, and had a UFC show the night before. Mania 27 did a huge buyrate.
ReplyDeleteFair point, but Diaz had a lot to do with that number as well. And you heard stories about fighters upping their games for Brock PPVs because they knew payouts would be higher.
ReplyDeleteWWE really needs to have something good planned for these last two weeks, because right now Rock/Cena feels completely heatless. Last year they were able to coast on an awful build because the match itself was completely fresh, and the winner was unpredictable, and people just wanted to see it no matter how bad the "rock concerts" and "you wrote notes on your hand" promos were. But this year, man I dunno. The match isn't fresh, the two of them don't even seem to have a real beef anymore, and the hook of that match is "John Cena is gonna win this time!" The match, as it stands right now, doesn't feel like it's nearly the big deal it needs to be.
ReplyDelete"And Royal Rumble wasn't disappointing, it was just not as profitable as it should have been. Big difference. "
ReplyDeleteDude, we all love The Rock (ok, some of us do), but that's just some fanboy stuff. The current Rumble estimates (either flatline to last year or up 50,000 on the highest end) are a disappointment. It's not a disaster or something that should force them to rethink their business, obviously, but it's a disappointment.
But in the end, it's still a forecast. A guess (though an educated one). And I bet their forecast didn't include details such as "Completely telegraph exactly what will happen from January through April for every marquee match". Had they included that info, their forecast would've been drastically different.
ReplyDeleteI thought his name was Chris...
ReplyDeleteAnd the manufactured drama still revolves around kicking another man's ass, not a shampoo commercial or the spillage of hot beverages.
ReplyDeleteI'd be the opposite of that. I came in with Brock and liked what I saw so I stuck around.
ReplyDeleteI like the Rock, I was pumped to see him come back, treat John Cena like a bitch and beat him....but I don't care to see him suddenly respect and then lose to him.
ReplyDeleteBrock leaving did hurt but I think there are other factors in their buyrates, in general going down. I think it's the FOX deal. With the Fox deal they have to put bigger fights on free TV, so their PPV cards become less stacked because they have to spread themselves so thin with all the events they have to field. Back around 2009-2010 nearly every UFC card had at least 2 or 3 fights with names in them. I think that's hurt UFC a great deal with buys.Oh and the lighter weight classes have kinda been bombing too.
ReplyDeleteI don't follow UFC like I did, but I like meeting up with friends at a bar, having some beer and watching the fights with an excited group of people. It makes for a good night of entertainment. Wrestling doesn't. Part of it is the kid friendly product - John Cena fans are pumped to stay up late on a school night to watch him overcome the odds, the people who are too old for that shit are having adult beverages watching real fighting the night before.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe Triple H is the guy they're using up most of Brock's dates for....well, I can, but still...
ReplyDeleteRock's draw over Brock's is swayed because Rock worked Mania. Look at the rest of the shows they did. Survivor Series 2011 was up 40,000 from previous year. Royal Rumble 2013 up 55,000 from last year. Extreme Rules up 53,000 from previous year. Summerslam 2012 up 60,000 from previous year. Basically minus WrestleMania their impact has been much the same.
ReplyDeleteTHIS. That is a huge reason why the enthusiasm from The Rock's Feb '11 promo has declined so much. When Rock cut that promo calling out Cena, it seemed like we had an epic blood feud on our hands. It felt like things would finally change based on the outcome of that feud.
ReplyDeleteAnd then the feud happened and... nothing changed. In terms of the show: John Cena acts EXACTLY the same. Rock doesn't dislike Cena anymore. In fact, what does Rock feel towards Cena? And this is gonna end with Rock losing the feud, putting over Cena as the greatest thing he's ever seen, and Cena doing the same act he's been for 10 years. The fact that Rock is taking part in that, well it just makes it hard to care about his presence anymore.
WrestleMania would bomb. Silva vs. Jones is a dream fight. WrestleMania features 2 matches that WERE dream matches that we've seen. WM would get crushed.
ReplyDelete"And Royal Rumble wasn't disappointing, it was just not as profitable as it should have been. Big difference. "
ReplyDeleteI think SK meant to say 'failure.' WWE were clearly disappointed that the show didn't do better.
That's what it's like now. There isn't character development. Their characters are established and they don't evolve or change. It's like cartoons. Take Spongebob. The characters are established. They don't change or evolve, they just stay as they are. John Cena is the main character of a cartoon. He's Spongebob, Vince is Mr. Krabs, and the heel he feuds with is Plankton.
ReplyDeleteWell, if we're talking forecasts, it's strictly an operating statement and thus the actual results of matches and such really mean nothing. And yes, it's still just a forecast, but expenses are determined on what you expect your revenues to be, so it is very important to be as accurate as possible. Most big investments or purchases are predicated on future revenues, especially if you want to get a network going. Also, you're not waiting on the revenues to deliver, you're investing now and the revenue forecast and ROI has a lot to do with the stock price, etc, etc. Anyways, this is long winded and boring compared to talking about wrestling, but the point is, making more revenue doesn't necessarily mean more profit and expectations are pretty realistic these days.
ReplyDeleteThe wwe wishes it was as well written and entertaining as spongebob
ReplyDeleteAt least last years had build. This ones had none which is amazing to me
ReplyDeleteCan't you see the McMahon dynasty ending with Vince and Steph going to prison for defrauding share holders.
ReplyDeleteThat's the nice thing about watching UFC. I have friends who buy every PPV, so I can just go to their house and watch the fights and they usually buy a shit ton of food and they are usually drunk so it's a rollicking good time. Best time I've ever had watching fights: When Frank Mir fought Minotauro the second time. Everyone I watched it with was rooting for Minotauro and I was rooting for Mir. I don't know if you saw that fight but being invested in the winner, it was a CRAZY thrill ride. Everyone in the house besides me was screaming with joy for the first half of the fight but once Mir scrambled and locked in the Kimura I jumped up and down screaming. Tons of fun.
ReplyDeleteI only work in the commodities field so I'm far from an expert on wwe-stock but isn't the only reason anyone buys it because it pays a consistent dividend? There is no way that this compsny can really ever grow that much bigger.
ReplyDeleteIt is shocking. What have they had? Just one face to face promo? It's a shame too because the one promo they have done to build this match was actually damn good and better than most of what they did all last year.
ReplyDeleteI think it might be because he used to actually help promote UFC PPVs on Raw during the late '90s. Hilariously enough, Dana White has confirmed that Vince has called to actually fight him and wanted to do at Wrestlemania.
ReplyDeleteNow I don't how full of shit White is on the promoter scale from 0 to Heyman, but for some reason I can see Vince asking that.
I've basically seen every build to wrestlemania either during or after the fact and this is the least hyped or built up mania main event ever. At this point they should put hhh Brock or punk taker on last.
ReplyDeleteHell WrestleMania IV didn't have an announced main event and it had more build than this one!
ReplyDeleteCorrect, the dividend is very consistent. I disagree that it can't grow though. There could be another boom and if they could bring up the North American buy rates up to match the ever increasing international buy rates, that's a shit ton of additional revenue. Also, if they can be successful launching their network, the advertising rates on that alone should be pretty good form them along with subscription income all assuming they get really good distribution.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, you could count all of the build of 27 and 28 as part of the build to this match.
ReplyDeleteI don't, but you could. Still though, they couldn't have done a sit down interview with JR or anything?
There new business model as far as creative goes is sooooo risk averse and done so poorly it seems hard to imagine them ever hitting another boom period, but the other side of that coin is I also don't seem them dropping to 1993 levels either. And the Bucks have a better chance to beat Miami in the first round than that network has of taking off.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure they can find international streams of revenue and maybe one day some of those movies will make money but I think wwe is pretty much what you see is what you get
UFC was under different ownership when WWE was plugging them in the late 90's.
ReplyDeleteFans are doing the "GOODBYE!" chant, guaranteed, especially if Triple H loses.
ReplyDeleteThe Fox deal hasn't hurt them at all, it's the injuries.
ReplyDeleteInjuries have sucked too. But having to have Fuel shows, FX shows, and Fox shows? Definitely is hurting their overall cards as well.
ReplyDeleteThumbs up for your description of what a rollercoaster ride a good fight can be, but I'd give your Mir love a thumbs down. Brock's destruction of him at UFC 100 and celebration afterward is my favorite MMA moment ever.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't. On the FX and Fuel shows, only the main events would ever make a PPV card.
ReplyDeleteOne of the most satisfying sporting moments I've ever witnessed. Mir is a dick.
ReplyDeleteIs UFC really at the level it was?
ReplyDeleteLast two PPVs did 800K and 450K(an amazing number for women's MMA). Yes.
ReplyDeleteMe personally I think it has sorely affected their cards. In 2009-2010 so many of their cards were ridiculously stacked. Now that they have to field FX, Fuel, and Fox shows they have to spread their fights out more and more.
ReplyDeleteFX and Fuel cards are generally kinda terrible. But those fights would never see PPV airtime, so it doesn't really affect them.
ReplyDeleteTotally. With Rock being out the last two weeks, it would have been the perfect time to run a taped 2-part sitdown with Rock & Cena & JR. At least they could have hyped the match by having both guys talk about how important the victory is.
ReplyDeleteIt really is amazing how there's just been ZERO effort in building interest in this match, beyond "Here they are, fuckers."
It's a shame no one has Fuel. Silva and Stann had a crazy fight on their last Fuel show. It kinda sucks that Gustaffson and Gegard are stuck fighting on Fuel. You'd think since Gustaffson is potentially a fight or 2 away from a title shot they'd put him on a card people will see. Like the Fox show 3 weeks later.
ReplyDeleteIf the build was EXACTLY the same, and any other wrestler on the roster was in HHH's spot (Sheamus, Bryan, Ryback, whoever), then I would be completely psyched about the Lesnar match. It's just that the idea of HHH and Stephanie being the babyface monster-slayers is just so underwhelming.
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, at least there's intensity in that build. Rock and Cena seem to have zero issue with eachother. How is it possible that they've essentially been feuding for 2 years, and the most heat the feud ever had was during Rock's first promo.
Admittedly I'm in the uk, maybe that's the reason it just seems to have dropped somewhat in profile.
ReplyDeleteI could never fully get into the feud because WWE never really gave us a reason to understand why these two hate each other. They relied way too much on the backstage backstory, which was pretty weak anyway. But in reality, they never really did anything all too terrible to each other.
ReplyDeleteI only mentioned the predictability of their storylines because that would affect their earning potential. It was obvious Rock was going to end Punk's streak and it's obvious Cena, HHH, and Taker will be winning at Wrestlemania. And not a single one of these programs is good enough on its own for a predictable finish to be sufficient. I think it was obvious Batista was going to beat HHH for the title at WM 21, but the story was one of their best of the decade so it worked out.
ReplyDeleteCombine a weak story with a foregone conclusion and lots of fans won't pay the astronomical amount WWE charges to see it happen.
I think it's plateaued. I'm at best a casual UFC fan, same for my group of friends, and all of us pay less attention to it now than we did a couple of years ago. I think it's the increased number of shows but I base that on absolutely nothing.
ReplyDeleteHe said he wanted to do something. White, the meathead that he is, assumed it was a fight.
ReplyDeleteIf Dana White shows up and low-blows Triple H during an appearance on Raw? Fucking money.
Yeah.
ReplyDeleteI mean, back in 2010-11, half of my classmates were talking about MMA. Now? Not so much. Admittedly, I'm now in Long Beach, but they're still roughly the same age group, y'know?
Dude, I love the Rock. Just let me have my thing.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the HBK/Taker one was the one I was referring to, not the one with Cena/Miz. I'm old, I can't keep track of all these WMs anymore.
ReplyDeleteHonesty is the best policy.
ReplyDeleteIm a pure casual, and if it wasnt for the guys on the blog talking about it, it would be completely off my radar.
ReplyDeleteUnless Brock comes back to UFC, then Im on board again. Just for Brock.
Haha, you're right. I'll watch what I say about the Great One
ReplyDeleteIf you're going to C+P, put it in caps.
ReplyDelete