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WWE Network Subscriber Prediciton

Dear Scott,

Assuming the numbers haven't been leaked before you decide to answer this, how many WWE Network subscribers do you think WWE will report on Thursday?

The Observer said WWE "needs to average 1.1 million subscribers during 2015 just to maintain equal cash flow" and closer to 1.4M to get back to its level of profitability pre-Network.

On Tuesday's PWTorch Livecast, Jason Powell predicted somewhere between 650k and 770k (715-725k as a narrower range), while Wade Keller said he personally would view anything above 770k as "better than expected."  I didn't see Dave's prediction in the Observer, though he did say it "will be far ahead of" the 700k number reported as of the last conference call and added that below 900k "would not be good."

​I'm thinking 775.  You'd have to think that by adding 170 countries they'd roll back some of the monster losses in numbers they're going to suffer over the summer, but not enough to hit their goals.  There's no chance of them hitting a million, I don't think.  Especially since the Network is based on the PPV buying model, and most of the non-WM shows were in the 100,000 range to begin with.  I just don't see the extra 600,000 WM buys sticking around.  ​

Comments

  1. I'm gonna throw out a high number because why not. 810K

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  2. Maybe I'm overlooking something really obvious and/or critical, but if they were able to get 650K in one country (even if it's gone down since then), how on Earth could they NOT hit a million with 170 countries?

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  3. Because that 650K was mainly because of Wrestlemania and also Summerslam. People will get the Rumble for 9.99 if the subscribed in the Fall, although if they waited some time, they could get the Rumble and WM for the 9.99 price.

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  4. I forgot what I said before.


    So I'll go with 743,000.

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  5. They're gonna Rise above operating losses

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  6. Next PPV Vince & Satan team up to face Sting & the returning God while CM Punk bitches about God taking someone else's spot despite being a part timer.

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  7. 1.1 million. delusional but why not?

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  8. I'd guess about 900. I think people are overestimating the doom of people not subscribing. But if WWE is really expecting over 1M post-WM 2015, good luck.

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  9. I'm gonna saaaaaay 800k, and it will never go past that from here on out.

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  10. My question though is, what happens if it doesn't become profitable in the next year or two? Do they raise the monthly price significantly and hope that the 600,000-700,0000 or so will pay much more and make it profitable? They can't possibly just scrap the whole thing, right? They are much too far in now. Does this ultimately lead to the McMahon's selling the company? I can't see that happening, but this isn't like the XFL or WBF where they can just go back to wrestling. For better or worse the network is the WWE now and vice versa, and it's hard to not see something drastic happening if the network does not succeed.

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  11. Even with Worst_in_the_World tapping out, I think they'll manage to hit 750k.

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  12. Good question. I think they'd probably make massive cuts.

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  13. I'm surprised they haven't raised the price to $19.99 yet, now that we're in the 6 month range of WM. I would think that price wouldn't be a sticking point for anywhere close to half the potential subscribers.


    And they can't simply go back to PPV now. Even if they were in good standing with providers, it's a format that's gradually dying in all entertainment.

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  14. I really don't see too many people willing to go up to $19.99. I think $9.99 is too much, though I'm thinking about going back.

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  15. TJ: I wish I could think of a word to describe this:

    http://instagram.com/p/uwvUoRyVCc/

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  16. He's going to need another surgery after that.

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  17. 850k, just to be optimistic. In theory, the bulk of the 700k will be there at least through 8/30, and adding international markets (even with some Geoblocking or whatever) plus the possible interest of Brock could be enough to get them closer to 900k for Summerslam, and maybe a little interest for NoC might mean that new subs somewhat balance out those who expire from the initial term.


    I'm interested if they'll announce how many people took advantage of one-month subscriptions (I think those were available just before Summerslam) and if they'll count each of them as 1.3 subscribers (12.99 vs. 9.99).

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  18. Who knew that Bryan Danielson and Kevin Nash had something in common?

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  19. I'll get the network when they get chromecast support. Or on my blu-ray player. For now, it only supports sony and Samsung blu-rays but I have a beastly Panasonic and I'm not changing just for the network.

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  20. Does anyone know where this 170 countries stuff has come from? The launch in the UK has been postponed so that's 100k subscribers min. off the total (we're due to get announcement on the 1st I believe what when we and how we get the Network). There are rumours that the TV contract they signed with Sky which covers the next few years is a major stumbling block - that contact included Sky getting the rights to several shows like NXT and Main Event which are on the Network and a lot of PPVs. I can see Sky ending up with a deal like Rogers in Canada (and I assume there were similar reasons why that deal happened in Canada).

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  21. Gunther the Nasty LoserOctober 30, 2014 at 12:47 AM

    I thought he didn't have a TV.

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  22. what did I slip int-...

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  23. Gunther the Nasty LoserOctober 30, 2014 at 12:48 AM

    About tree-fiddy

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  24. Prediction: You even think about unsubscribing and Bray Wyatt will appear from one of your light fixtures in a plume of magic smoke and run your ass over. That wasn't an angle; it was a warning.

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  25. I'm not sure when my subscription expires, or if it auto renews. I got to witness an Indy fella from my state End Wrestlemania 30 on top of the Wrestling World. I also got to witness BROCK Murderdeathkill Cena. For my $9.99 a month, if I wake up at 3 am & wanna watch Macho Man. I can.

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  26. You unsubscribe and someone calls your house to tell you that you have 7 days. If you don't subscribe, Bray Wyatt will come out of your lamp and kill you.

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  27. You don't think a DOUBLING of the price would be a sticking point for too many people?

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  28. Not a chance they got anywhere close to 900k for summerslam. Will be surprised if they even hit 900k next year.

    I think 750 will be the number today. Great opportunity to short the stock.

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  29. "Yep Mode" Abeyance Brown ©October 30, 2014 at 5:38 AM

    I'm gonna be generous and say around 720K.

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  30. I'm gonna say 750.


    The domestic numbers have probably dropped again, and with the UK not yet launched, and the Canadian launch bungled, the international takeup won't be significant.

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  31. I'll go 775k and a shitload more layoffs

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  32. I've been on 777K for two weeks now, not moving off of it.

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  33. They'll need to bring Austin and Rock back full time if they want to get that steady 1.4 Million, and im not being ridiculous

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  34. I like that he still has the "Indie Wrestler on a Budget Entertainment Center", even though he is a millionaire.

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  35. He's a millionaire?

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  36. Scott thinks they can still make cuts to talent and other things and still give off the notion that they're profitable. But stockholders crave growth, not just profitability, and there are signs that they're shifting to a cable-tv-styled channels with On Demand support, like HBO or even TNT. I think that will keep the network going.

    McMahon isn't selling, and he owns enough stock to prevent a hostile takeover (doubtful that happens). But while they're not dead, they're not exactly thriving, either, and stock experts have been down on them for a while. I wonder how low the price will drop today.

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  37. I'll go 785. They'll make cuts to show they're still profitable, but if they don't show a level of sustainable growth, they're going to have a lot of issues.

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  38. I'd love it if it were a much higher than expected number, just to see the meltdowns here. "Oh noes, that means Cena will continue to get pushed, nnooooo!!"

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  39. I predict they actually lost customers since the last sharing. No big PPVs in fall. Despite the supposed "6 month committments," I bet thousands of the "WWE Universe" cancelled their subscriptions.

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  40. Here's how I see things going:


    100k subs = Cena will continue to get pushed
    500k subs = Cena will continue to get pushed
    10,000,000 subs = Cena will continue to get pushed

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  41. If they could get Herman Cain to advertise the network, I bet they'd break 10 millions subscribers.

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  42. The way I see it going:

    Disappointing number of subs: SEE? SEE? WWE NEEDS TO LISTEN TO US!
    High number of subs : "Meh, sub numbers don't really tell the whole story".

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  43. No UK yet, the number will get realistic when that happens.

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  44. I think we need to make a list of demands before we start subsidising the WWE's entire existence. Move all PPV's to a reasonable UK time. At LEAST THREE major PPV's based in the UK. Put William Regal on Raw in place of JBL. Anything else?

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  45. Do you see they just announced the network is free for November.....FOR NEW subscribers...This is garbage.

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  46. Must not be all that great - they just sent me an email informing me there's no more 6-month commitment for the $9.99.

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  47. Wow, they don't know what the fuck they're doing.

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  48. $9.99/month, there's just no commitment involved.

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  49. Supposedly we're getting an announcement regarding the UK launch this Saturday. If it ends up being a channel carried by Sky I'm not sure the numbers will be too spectacular.

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  50. And no matter what the number is, you'll be as annoying as always!

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  51. Not sure our package can handle BT Sport, MUTV, Sky Sports AND the WWE Network. Other members of the household are gonna pressure me to cut back. What am I gonna do? :(

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  52. Looks like 731,000

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  53. I find it really troubling that the "commitment" part is what bothers subscribers.

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  54. Speaking of that, after my 6 months was over, I didn't have it on auto-renew and didn't do it manually, but I was still able to use the service... and then about 2 weeks later they charged me. Then they never responded to my inquiry about this. I wouldn't even recommend the free month to anyone because of this kind of shit.

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  55. Maybe they just wanted to watch ECW "One Night Stand".



    *rimshot*

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  56. As a Leeds fan I can immediately see one subscription for you to drop!

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  57. Bluetista!

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  58. Maybe they should put the title on Hogan again.

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  59. They would've had one extra one in me if they hadn't fucked up the roll out to Canada.

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  60. I think its $9.99, cancel at anytime without penalty

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  61. Ah,. so if the booked result of a fake rasslin' match is not what you would have booked, you can have a meltdown and cancel! nice!!

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  62. So they're saying 703 US and 28 international, for 731 total apparently.

    https://twitter.com/wnwdotcom/status/527806042810634240/photo/1

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  63. "Hey you, get your damn hands off her"

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  64. That's what I saw as well

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  65. This all really sucks for my friend who like the day before HIAC resigned up for 6 months..and like a week later could have got a month free.

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  66. Ah sorry, you were there first! Didn't see it. You get the breaking news credit.

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  67. So 3 months of obnoxious shilling every week on Raw and they
    added a grand total of 3,000 subscribers between July and September.

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  68. That's like 1 subscriber for every mention of the Network on Raw.

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  69. stuff it Peyton, go yell at more scoreboard operators!!

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  70. so..unless they actually start giving a shit about the product 700,000+ is the best they can do. They should up the price a couple bucks and call it a day.

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  71. Well, I guess you could add all the people they got to renew because of the shilling. Otherwise, it's beyond pathetic considering they've been getting entire arenas to chant "$9.99."

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  72. No problemo. I didn't see anyone else commenting on it so I didn't want to draw attention to it in case I was mistaken. The beating I would have taken could have been devastating. HA!

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  73. Hmm, this is in the Observer now: "According to Eric Fisher of Sports Business Journal, the company had a gross subscriber addition of 286,000 last quarter, meaning there was an incredible amount of subscriber churn to add up to 31,000 net new subscribers."

    So they actually gained a lot, but lost a ton as well.

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  74. This was a strong prediction.

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  75. Either they totally misread the market or did their usual overinlfated predictions of success which is par for the course in professional wrestling.
    That said, they're stuck with it now. Over time they will recoup their losses and unless something extraordinary happens they will have to adjust their business to reflect this new and lower revenue stream.

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  76. Do you think HHH or anyone at meetings has gone.."I know this sounds crazy but....we could try and make the product fresh and exciting...start pushing the people the fans seem excited about and..you know keep pushing them until the fans get tired of them?" Vince just stares a hole through him "We are doing Cena vs Orton Dammit!"

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  77. Survivor Series is basically free then! Except for current subscribers.

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  78. This kind of stuff happens all the time. Not a big deal. Like if I play online poker on a site, I don't get enraged if they give a "Free $100 promotion" for new players.

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  79. Actually I'm not even that upset for myself. As I said elsewhere in this thread I know a guy who reupped right before HIAC which totally hoses him because he paid 10 bucks for a crap PPV and now is paying for november. He is pretty much being punished for giving them a chance to entertain him with HIAC

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  80. This is precisely how it goes. But Triple H follows up with a begrudging..."Yes, DAD"

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  81. I guess I'm the only one that enjoyed that PPV. Found it to be a perfectly acceptable card from top to bottom.

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  82. To quote Chandler: "oh COME ONNN!!!" That was good.

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  83. In the same tone that he called him "DAD" when he revealed that he drugged and married Steph, I hope?

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  84. I find it amusing that there has been some discussion regarding the WWE Network and how by adding 170 countries, they should really be doing better. But, TNA recently revealed about how they have signed up all of these various international deals - and of course, we all laughed at them. Because they don't have their US TV sorted,


    Hey, WWE. Your largest International market is STILL waiting for your fucking Network. You've already bullshitted once on the launch date. You've already made us wait almost 9 months longer. And inevitably you're going to shaft us on the currency exchange.


    At this point you're rapidly becoming as a big a joke in my house for your lies about your TV distribution, as TNA are, and their hopeless fantasies about their own TV.

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  85. Do you still drink Irn Bru while playing online poker?

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  86. The number is out. Who would have thought 775K was too high for a guess?

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  87. Wait, so I can subscribe right now, get the month free, then cancel before they ask for payment next month?

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  88. I was rooting for them at the other number reveal meetings because I want the network to work..its a lot of good stuff (could be better but still) now though I'm like...I kind of hope the sky really starts falling because they need to wake the hell up and realize their product is garbage right now. I don't understand who business can be down and subscription numbers are low and shareholders are concerned and you are slashing budgets but...the one thing that all this money actually comes from (the wrestling product) you continue to sleep walk through and continue to book as if you have a waterfall of money coming in every day.

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  89. Tell her that you are the man of the house and you will have whatever channels you wish?

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  90. If you wanted that sort of thing you should have tried NOT losing 2 wars to the U.S.

    #USANUMBAHONE

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  91. The UK doesn't have WWE Network?

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  92. They apparently don't have dentists either.

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  93. And watch as the number drops like their stock price.

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  94. Look at what you’ve done to Dean, WWE. L Look at how angry he
    is, you bastards!

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  95. And I am sure they could since HE'S NOT WORKING!

    #DemocratsWinLOL

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  96. Hey, we're two time world war champions, just like you! We also have better chocolate.

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  97. 730k? Wow that's rough. Well, they absolutely should just keep doing what they're doing because it's obviously working, right???

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  98. Your parallax endorsement has, rightly, gone to your head.

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  99. My girlfriend and I thought it was the most entertaining PPV we'd seen in many, many months, other than the underwhelming AJ/Paige stuff. The finish was absolutely fine with us.


    I mean, more than fine.


    Does anyone else remember how the FIRST EVER Hell In A Cell match ended?

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  100. I imagine it's more along the lines of "I love ya pop"

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  101. Somehow we are still splitting the bills 50/50 despite my
    stealthy creeping increase of sports channels to the package. If I add just ONE
    too many, Lee might have to pay for the whole thing. L

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  102. That was different! That one was not a travesty! this one IS a travesty!!!

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  103. The ghost hasn't even been around a week yet.. We just need to let it play out a while.

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  104. Got an e-mail this morning saying Great News about my WWE Network subscription, I opened it up and read that there is no longer a 6-month commitment and it is now $9.99 month/cancel anytime, I go to cancel my subscription and I am still locked in until March. F-U WWE. Bait and switch even in fucking e-mails.

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  105. "Hey, we're two time world war champions, THANK TO you!"

    FTFY

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  106. It might get future endeavored.

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  107. We’ve got Manchester United and the National Health Service.
    We’ll be fine!

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  108. We get extra credit for helping start those wars too! Anyone can just FINISH a war.

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  109. I liked most of it... I would have preferred that goofy finish not close the show but that is a personal preference not something that kills a whole show for me. The rest was ok... not really memorable, but entertaining for sure.

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  110. Yeah. Taker was beating the holy hell out of Shawn... except Shawn never bled. Then right as Taker was going to pin Shawn, the lights went out. Paul Bearer and some druids came out, and the druids chanted for a minute while Paul kept yelling "HE'S HERE!". Lights go out again, and the ring fills with smoke. A hologram of some tall guy in a red mask appears in the center of the ring, and Taker looks scared out of his wits once he sees him. Lights pop back on, tall red guy is in the ring, Tombstones a still shocked Taker, and Michaels crawls over for the weak pin.


    Wait, what do you mean that's not how it happened? The tall red guy RIPPED THE DOOR OFF OF THE CELL? Horsefeathers and balderdash, good sir.

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  111. "Anyone can just FINISH a war."

    Especially the French because they just give up AMIRITE?

    #FindingCommonGround

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  112. DEAN THERE'S NEWS:

    "WWE Network to be available in the U.K.: The Company continues to develop the international platform for WWE Network and plans to make the U.S. version of WWE Network available in the U.K. on an over-the-top basis in November."

    So still no date, but sometime in November. They say.

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  113. You get credit for dying a lot in WW1, and credit for not quitting in WW2.

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  114. Let's cheers to this!

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  115. This. I don't know why this has been such a tough sell to wrestling fans. I get why Joe Average RAW viewer might take some persuasion but everyone here should have been, and should still be thrilled with it.

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  116. Now they're just being weird. Why would they even send that to their subscribers who that won't matter to for another 4-5 months?

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  117. Exactly and even put in the subject: Great News About Your WWE Network Subscription". I mean what the heck man.

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  118. I gotta think that the "one month, cancel anytime" strategy will allow them to spin for "new" signups, as anyone who cancels but signs up again can be counted as "two" subscribers. That will be interesting to see.

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  119. Nice! 700,000 new subscribers every month! What growth!

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  120. How long have you been sitting on that joke?

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  121. The entire thing has been a disaster, off-line - that's the type of PR screw-ups that keep people from re-signing, PLUS it dissuades future business. That's all kinds of bad.

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  122. Do you think you could plead this case over the phone and get out of the contract?

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  123. Splitting the bills... neither of my wives were ever able to pull that off (I assume we are talking about a wife here) kudos to that I guess.

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  124. There's no difference between the two except for the door being ripped off, which I would argue is more kayfabe-breaking ("Well how come he never did it again?") than "Oh my god Bray Wyatt has brainwashed someone in the production truck under orders from the Authority".

    And, back then, folks were intrigued to see what Kane would be doing. Instead everybody is going on about a 'ghost', even though there wasn't one.

    Imagine if in 1997, many of the lead posters on here were all, "Ha ha, yeah, and then the KOOL AID GUY smashed through the cage, such a sucky ending!"

    Except, it didn't happen that way.

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  125. WWE should pass out free 1 month WWE Network slips at the exits of their RAW, SD, and PPVs.

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  126. I really liked it (helps to not watch the TV shows and only watch the one card a month). But it's kind of fun to bitch about the ending.

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  127. Of course, the USA was late to both, which makes America to World Wars as John Cena was to the 2008 Royal Rumble.


    He's not normally welcome, but on this occasion, hoorah! And since he was the last in, no wonder he does well. What an opportunist.

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  128. Here's my guess on why they dropped the 6-month commitment thing: because Wrestlemania 31 will NOT be on the Network.

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  129. 4 months and still going strong!

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  130. Where else is it going to be? PPV? Can't exactly put the toothpaste back in THAT tube.

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  131. Not anyone. America sure did a shitty job of ending the Korean war.

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  132. If FDR hadn't found creative ways to sell you cockney fucks weapons you would have been like Santino in the Rumble.

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  133. Nah, South Korea still exists. Now Vietnam... THERE'S a "shitty job".

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  134. For WM I think they can.

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  135. It'll be on PPV. The carriers sell an assload of Manias every year, they won't pass on it. I'd bet WWE already has that worked out which is why they dropped the 6-month thing.

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  136. But you see, there are still some Prime Time episodes that have not been uploaded, and someone interfered in a cage match! so that cancels everything out, and WWE sucks!!

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  137. Jobber would be crushed. He spent all that time on the avatar and all...

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  138. Wait the marriage or the bill splitting?

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  139. Also, WWE is still airing on most PPV providers. They sold 150k of Summerslam for chrissakes even with it airing "free" on the Network.

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  140. The marriage. We've been splitting bills for years and years.

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  141. Not like America, seeing things through right to the bitter end in Vietnam.


    No wonder as a nation, you had to celebrate 'Mission Accomplished' YEARS EARLY during our mutual invasion of Iraq.


    National Psychological Damage-a-go-go!

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  142. I wonder if they'll finally switch the Network to a paid channel like HBO to where people can opt to add it on, but will that affect their profit margin?

    It just seems like they grossly overestimated what they could do and it's been embarrassing. I mean, even WWF1987's instance is the kind of things people get fired for.

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  143. And Taker didn't get his revenge on Shawn at HITC... Then Kane interfered AGAIN at the Rumble in their casket match. So did Taker look like a doofus for not being able to beat Shawn? Did he turn into a midcard joke? Um nope!

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  144. All while insulting the paying audience.

    We like to call that behavior "unsustainable", but it's wrestling fans, so whatevs.

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  145. Well argued. You have placed me in a position of either defending President Bush, or ceding the argument. Fitta and TBK should pay attention.

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  146. I see. Well good luck. If she ever needs someone to talk to... for advice and stuff... I am always available.

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  147. Whoa, deja vu!!

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  148. When asking about canceling anytime, but still being locked in for six months, they said :"Thanks. Your subscription will be migrated to the $9.99 plus applicable tax, cancel anytime on December. That is the reason why you cannot cancel it today. "


    YAHOO I'm out after this month!

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  149. Can't you Chromecast it from your computer to your TV? Legit question, I am just getting into casting and not sure how it works.

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  150. So I'm getting the feeling Mania will be on PPV. Can't explain why.

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  151. Good old FDR, letting Pearl Harbour happen, trying to turn the presidency into a dictatorship. Yeah, he was a peach.


    He was rightfully afraid of Russia and aware that the first fight between capitalist and communist forces would take place on European soil. He wasn't saving the UK or Europe (anymore than the UK utterly fucking failed to protect the Czechs or the Polish, which is WHY we were in the damn war to begin with). It was an overseas peace-keeping mission no different to the US' involvement in Afghanistan.


    Just with more phoney-baloney tourism-enhancing 'We have a special relationship' crap between the US and the UK in order to sell trinkets.



    Cockney? That's only for Londoners. You goddamn Okie, you. BOOMER SOONER!

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  152. Remember to come back for the Rumble though!

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  153. Already there! It's a great feeling.

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  154. You have to wonder how many other people are having the same issue.

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  155. I don't think the Network is a reflection of Raw or the Network itself being a deficient product (it could be better, but it could also be a lot worse). I think it has more to do with the fact that WWE is a niche product and the majority of fans simply don't see access to its library or PPVs as being worth $10 per month.

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  156. But it's Brock vs Cena Part 700 and Roman Reigns winning the Rumble. How can you pass on that??? HAHAHAHHA.

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  157. I bet they send out a follow-up e-mail before noon today lol

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  158. I remembered your had a history in politics, and baited my trap, my little fly friend.

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  159. "Good old FDR, letting Pearl Harbour happen"

    That old myth.

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  160. What a nice guy. *pats parallax1978 on the back*

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  161. Part 3 of a trilogy, and the conclusion of a long term storyline. You know, the ones they "never" do? But hey, let's ignore that, and keep saying they never do long term storylines!

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  162. LOL I called it:

    "Don't worry sir, please check your email from time to time because you will be given instructions on how to avail of the cancel anytime subscription."

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  163. I definitely think that the quality of Raw is a major factor in the sense that:
    1) The shiftiness of Raw is causing their audience to decrease
    2) The shiftiness of Raw makes it less likely that their current audience will want to pay to watch even more of the same.

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  164. So if they gained a lot and lost a lot... that means their marketing initiative push may have actually worked BUT they pissed off so many of the original buyers so bad that they bailed?

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  165. Oh shut up with the conclusion of a long term storyline. They filled Cena in there out of desperation and it's 4 months after there last match.

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  166. I could have kept going with it, but I think there is more value in pointing out how well it was played since some of the kids here are very bad at this. They have the passion for it but need experience. I have, in the past gotten them to the point of calling me names while never once stating an opinion, just by asking questions.

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  167. No, but I think the product itself hasn't helped.

    Off-line, the Network rollout has been pretty bad - they don't explain how easy it is to use, there's only so much you can watch without feeling burned out, and their customer service has been inconsistent. Couple that with making fun of the paying public and an ever-changing strategy, and you have the #s before you.

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  168. That's me. Nice guy with absolutely no ulterior motives.

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  169. They added foreign subscribers by default of launching in Canada and loads of other markets, but that means the US numbers already dropped quite a bit.

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  170. Look how bad the RAW and SD ratings are. Awful. I'm sure its the fans fault though for not being invested in the storylines.

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  171. Taker also was a main eventer, with YEARS on top by that point. Dean's had a great run with the Shield, but to compare those two at those points in their career is dishonest at best.

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  172. If parallax1978 is too far away, I'm only a city or two over from you, and my girlfriend is married to someone else. So, uh, I'm saying that I have experience of also offering warm and comforting... advice.


    Think of me as his British, less-funny under study.


    I don't do dudes though.

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  173. exactly you can't say the quality of the product isn't a factor because the size of the audience is the poll your pulling from for subscribers..if they were to actually try and grow that audience (I know crazy right?) they would get more subscribers

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  174. Yeah but HHH and Stephanie will tell fans to subscribe on Monday as everyone boos and that'll fix things.

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